Donald Trump is supposedly the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party as he rises to 40% in recent polling among the twelve Republican presidential candidates. Candidate after the candidate has attacked Trump, yet with each blow Teflon Trump grows stronger.
If one watches the Republican establishment, they have already made it crystal clear that they would sooner back Donald Trump than Senator Cruz. Why? Trump is seen as a deal maker that has no political beliefs. What he wants is more power, and a legacy. If this is not the case, then why are the hacks of the political class breaking bread with Trump, a man who would take less than 20% of the Latino vote in a general election, thus throwing the presidency into the hands of Bernie Sanders, or possibly Hillary Clinton?
Bob Dole, the former Senate Minority Leader and Republican presidential nominee in 1996, said he would rather have Trump than Cruz. Donald Rumsfeld, the infamous war criminal refused to criticise Trump on the Today Show, even though Trump has ravaged Rumsfeld and his co conspirators for the Iraq War. The reason behind all of this is that the criminals in the Republican establishment think that they can either control Trump once he is elected President of the United States, or at least cut a deal with him which will ensure that they maintain their power and influence in the halls of government, and the military industrial complex.
Yet as stated earlier, the voting has not yet begun, and the media, just like the vast majority of the masses, have little to no understanding of the voting process. Why should they? Sheep are meant to be sent to the slaughter. No one said they should have intelligence.
Voting kicks off in Iowa on February the 1st, when Republicans go to caucus for who they believe should be their nominee. Historically turnout has always been below 20% among registered Republicans, which just goes to show how absurd democracy is to begin with. Why give the masses the right to vote when they don’t even bother?
Nevertheless, the polls are currently predicting a Trump victory in the first state, but that all depends on voter turnout. If turnout surpasses all expectations and reaches 200,000 then it will definitely be a victory for Donald Trump, but does this even matter?
At the end of the day what matters is the delegate selection process, and only a miniscule percentage of the delegates are even chosen in the four states which vote in February.
Say Trump wins in Iowa, and then heads to New Hampshire and South Carolina, winning by large margins. The election is over isn’t it, no one will be able to catch up with Trump, right? Wrong.
In 1996, Pat Buchanan won three of the first four states, and the one state he lost out of the first four was Iowa, by only 3%. Did Buchanan go on to win the Republican nomination? Have you ever heard of President Pat Buchanan? No, of course not. Why? He only won one other state. Buchanan won three of the first four, yet lost 45 of the next 46 states, as well as the District of Columbia and all the territories.
Cruz’s strategy is simple….make it to the caucus states. Currently Trump is foolish enough to have no staffers in any caucus state after February. According to his website he has no organisation whatsoever in the five caucus states that vote on March 1st, which will be devastating for his campaign, given that Cruz has a fifty state strategy, and is well prepared in those states.
For those that aren’t aware, a caucus is when registered voters for a political party meet at numerous locations throughout a state (typically at night) and spend time listening to volunteers and supporters of each of the candidates explain why caucus-goers should vote for their candidate. This process usually takes approximately an hour or so, and the ballots are then counted publicly in front of the caucus-goers. Turnout for caucuses is typically always below 5% among registered Republicans(Iowa being the exception), and only those who care deeply about a candidate or the political process bother voting.
This is why Trump is in a bind. He may have legions of fanatical diehard supporters, but the fact of the matter is that they will not show up in the caucus states that vote on March 1st. On the 1st of March (Super Tuesday) 14 states will be voting. The five caucus states are Minnesota (Only Cruz has actively campaigned here), North Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, and Alaska. Trump has campaigned in just one of those states, and that was due to the fact that the CNBC debate was held in Boulder.
In 2012, the establishment of the Republican Party was put to shame when Mitt Romney took less than 17% of the vote in Minnesota in a four way race. Rick Santorum came out of nowhere to win with 44%, and Dr. Ron Paul secured a solid 27%. Why did Dr. Paul and Senator Santorum do so well, whereas Governor Romney and Newt Gingrich failed to breakthrough? Organisation. When a presidential campaign lacks organisation in a caucus state, it eventually unravels in said state. This is a natural law of the American political process.
A similar result took place in North Dakota, and Senator Santorum also won in Colorado. In Wyoming, Governor Romney was able to win due to the fact that only 2,300 people bothered to vote, and the Mormons made sure their flock went out to vote for Gov. Romney.
As for Alaska, Gov. Romney won a tight three way race only because Santorum and Paul split the anti Romney vote. This likely won’t be the case this time around, with Mormons voting against Trump, and with the race coming down to just Trump and Cruz before March 1st even kicks off.
Also take note of the fact that Sarah Palin’s endorsement will likely backfire and not aid Donald Trump. When Palin announced she was voting for Gingrich in the 2012 Alaska Republican caucus, Gingrich came in a distant fourth place. So much for her opinion being of any importance. Perhaps that’s one of the reasons she resigned from being Governor. Some people aren’t fit to handle rejection.
As for the other nine states which vote on March 1st, two are in New England (Vermont and Massachusetts), six are in the south, and Cruz’s home state of Texas also votes on this day. As Joe Scarborough once said, “Texas isn’t in the south. Texas is Texas.”
The most recent poll from Texas just came out on the 24th of January, and has the Senator at a whopping 45%, with Trump in a distant second with 30%. What’s important about Texas is that it has by far more delegates than any of the other thirteen states which vote on the 1st of March, and one cannot receive any delegates unless one obtains a bare minimum of 20% of the state wide vote. Currently, Senator Rubio is in third with just 8%, thus making it next to impossible for any candidate other than Cruz and Trump to obtain delegates out of Texas. On top of this, if a candidate gets more than 50% of the state wide vote, he receives all 152 delegates, which would be a deadly blow to Trump, who needs a majority of the delegates going into the convention to win the nomination. If he fails to do this, he will certainly lose a brokered convention.
With Cruz winning the five caucus states and Texas, expect Trump to come out victorious in Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama. Oklahoma and Arkansas will be battleground states between Cruz and Trump, and Cruz would certainly relish coming out on top in one of those two, which would mean he would have won 7 of the 14 states on Super Tuesday. Fortunately for Cruz, all the states which will be won by Trump on March 1st elect their delegates via proportional representation, which means Cruz won’t be far behind when he comes in second place in all of the southern states which Trump wins. As for Vermont and Massachusetts, expect Trump victories, and an establishment Republican (Rubio or Kasich) to come in second in Massachusetts, and perhaps in Vermont as well.
PERCEPTION IS REALITY: – REMEMBER THAT
With Cruz winning 6-7 of the states on Super Tuesday, expect the Trump balloon to finally pop. Come Saturday March 5th only two candidates will be left seeking the Republican nomination, which will mean the pressure on Trump will mount.
Just as when Hitler couldn’t stop the allies from bombing German cities, Trump will not be able to stop Cruz from racking up victories.
Come Saturday March 5th, Cruz will win a landslide victory in Kansas, along with wins in Kentucky (where Governor Matt Bevin will campaign for him), and Maine. Trump will win the Louisiana primary, but losing three out of four states on that Saturday, as well as a total of 9-10 out of 18 during the first week of March, will show the voters that Trump has been fatally wounded. No longer will Trump be seen as invincible by the media hacks who only care about ratings, or the establishment politicians who are desperate to hold onto power for dear life, even tHough they’ll all be dead in twenty years time due to old age.
March 6th: Cruz wins Puerto Rico. Trump get’s annihilated, thus showing he truly doesn’t have the support of Latino Republicans. Expect Trump to take less than 10% of the vote. It’s even possible that Rubio will come ahead of Trump, even though he will have suspended his campaign by this point. How embarrassing for the Donald…
March 8th: Cruz wins the Hawaii caucuses: He will need to make a concerted effort to win Idaho, Mississippi, and Michigan. A Cruz sweep in all four states would finish Trump off, but such a sweep is unlikely.
March 12th: Cruz wins Guam. Washington DC will be interesting. We should not predict a winner of the epicentre of the beast.
March 15th: Starting on this date, most states become winner take all. Trump will win Florida and Missouri (Missouri is not winner take all). Cruz will win the Northern Mariana Islands. Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio will be battleground states.
March 19th: Cruz wins the Virgin Islands.
March 22nd: Cruz wins American Samoa and Utah. Trump wins Arizona.
April 5th: Cruz wins Wisconsin.
After this, most of the states which vote are in New England, the Mid Atlantic, and the West Coast. It’s imperative for Cruz to score victories in states such as Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan, to weaken Trump, and deliver a deadly blow. How can Cruz do this?
THE MARCH 10TH CNN DEBATE: A one on one debate on the issues will likely result in Cruz annihilating Trump. Without a doubt Trump has little to no command of the issues, and is incapable of doing anything in a debate other than play the victim, and attack the appearance of others. This debate could put Cruz over the top in Ohio and Illinois, both of which are winner take all states.
Now you may think these predictions are fanciful. You may be a diehard Trump supporter who knows next to nothing about the political process. I’ll tell you this though, if you want Trump as the Republican nominee for President of the United States, then you must really want Bernie Sanders as the next POTUS, or perhaps Hillary Clinton, because that’s exactly what you’ll end up with.
Some people think Sanders, the democratic socialist, can never get elected POTUS. Well, they’re wrong. If he’s the Democratic Party nominee, it’s over. Promise the masses everything on a silver platter, and they’ll eat it all up. Don’t believe me? Look at what the fools did in 2008. When the masses are given the vote, don’t be surprised when they vote for the crazies who want class warfare (Bernie), or anti Semites who blame the Jews for everything (NSDAP), or the Muslim Brotherhood which wants to bring back the Khalifa (in Egypt and Libya). So sit back and enjoy the ride. It’s going to be one hell of a sick joke.
Disclaimer: This is NOT an endorsement for Ted Cruz. I support Gov. Kasich, who has a 69% approval rating in Ohio, and a record of achievements unmatched by any of his competitors. While he does not have the best foreign policies views, no doubt exists that if any presidential candidate from either major party can turn the American economy around, it’s John Kasich. His ability to work across the aisle without sacrificing his principles was exemplified while serving in the House of Representatives. Unfortunately, he will fail to win a single state (unless he only focuses on Vermont on Super Tuesday), even if he pulls off a strong second place showing in New Hampshire.
The point of this article? To prove that the vast majority of the media, political hacks, and especially Corey Lewandowski…should have no place in the political arena. If you make six to seven figures a year analysing politics and can’t figure out the Republican primary process, then you have no business making more than minimum wage.