14 states are voting today in the Republican primaries/caucuses. 9 states have primaries where the delegates are bound, 2 states have caucuses where the delegates are bound (Minnesota & Alaska), and 3 states have caucuses with no presidential preference vote.
This means people are simply voting for delegates in North Dakota, Colorado, and Wyoming. Trump will get taken to the cleaners in those three states, but we won’t know who has the most delegates until later on.
Minnesota and Alaska are up for grabs. Cruz has the best ground game in those states, but Rubio is desperately making a push in Minnesota to come up with his first win. In Alaska it’s only between Trump and Cruz, with Cruz sure to edge The Donald. We know that Cruz will win Texas, but the margin will be a key indicator on whether or not Cruz can come out with enough delegates in the state to decrease the lead Trump has among delegates nationwide.
Arkansas is a primary that looks like a three cornered race at the moment. Cruz is pulling away in Oklahoma, yet Trump is expected to win handily in Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia. Virginia will be a Trump victory with Rubio in second, and Kasich is fighting to come in second in Massachussets ahead of Rubio, but behind Trump, who will take more than 40% of the vote. Vermont looks like another win for Trump, yet is insignificant given how few delegates come from the state. Kasich and Rubio will fighting for second place there.
Expect Ben Carson to nap through most of the night, and Kasich to say it all comes down to who can win his home state on March 15th. If Kasich wins Ohio on the 15th, and Rubio falls to Trump in Florida, then Rubio is out and Kasich becomes the establishment candidate.
Does any of this matter? Not unless Republicans coalesce behind an anti Trump candidate, and they need to do it quickly.